Once Caldas vs América de Cali Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Aug 06, 2026 · kickoff 01:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Once Caldas vs América de Cali
Model pick: Once Caldas (35%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.04 – 1.0
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Once Caldas | América de Cali |
|---|
| League position | #5 (34 pts) | #6 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 0.4 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Once Caldas shown at home, América de Cali shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Once Caldas — last 5
WDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
América de Cali — last 5
WLWWD
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Once Caldas (home) | América de Cali (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Top scorer | Dayro Moreno (10) | Yeison Guzman (8) |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.04 vs 1.0):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Once Caldas or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — América de Cali or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Once Caldas clean sheet | 37% |
| América de Cali clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Once Caldas is the model's most likely outcome at
35%. Once Caldas are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Once Caldas vs América de Cali — FAQ
Who will win Once Caldas vs América de Cali?
Our statistical model makes Once Caldas the most likely result at 35%. Full probabilities: Once Caldas 35%, draw 31%, América de Cali 34%.
Will both teams score in Once Caldas vs América de Cali?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Once Caldas vs América de Cali?
Expected goals are 1.04 for Once Caldas and 1.0 for América de Cali — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Once Caldas vs América de Cali?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Once Caldas or draw is 66%.