Once Caldas vs Cúcuta Deportivo Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Jul 27, 2026 · kickoff 01:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Once Caldas vs Cúcuta Deportivo
Model pick: Once Caldas (54%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.74 – 0.85
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Once Caldas | Cúcuta Deportivo |
|---|
| League position | #5 (34 pts) | #19 (16 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 2.6 |
*Once Caldas shown at home, Cúcuta Deportivo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Once Caldas — last 5
WDWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Cúcuta Deportivo — last 5
LLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Once Caldas (home) | Cúcuta Deportivo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 48% |
| Top scorer | Dayro Moreno (10) | Jaime Peralta (5) |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.74 vs 0.85):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Once Caldas or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Cúcuta Deportivo or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Once Caldas clean sheet | 43% |
| Cúcuta Deportivo clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Once Caldas is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Once Caldas are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Once Caldas vs Cúcuta Deportivo — FAQ
Who will win Once Caldas vs Cúcuta Deportivo?
Our statistical model makes Once Caldas the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Once Caldas 54%, draw 25%, Cúcuta Deportivo 20%.
Will both teams score in Once Caldas vs Cúcuta Deportivo?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Once Caldas vs Cúcuta Deportivo?
Expected goals are 1.74 for Once Caldas and 0.85 for Cúcuta Deportivo — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Once Caldas vs Cúcuta Deportivo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Once Caldas or draw is 82%.