Operário PR vs Avaí Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Operário PR vs Avaí
Model pick: Operário PR (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.15 – 0.92
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Operário PR | Avaí |
|---|
| League position | #4 (35 pts) | #18 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.3 | 0.9 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 55% | 10% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.2 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
*Operário PR shown at home, Avaí shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Operário PR — last 5
WDWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Avaí — last 5
LWDWL
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Operário PR (home) | Avaí (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-3-2 in 11 (1.5 / 1.3 goals per game) | 1-2-7 in 10 (0.9 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Top scorer | Boschilia (9) | Thayllon (3) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.15 vs 0.92):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Operário PR or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Avaí or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Operário PR clean sheet | 40% |
| Avaí clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Operário PR is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Operário PR are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Operário PR vs Avaí — FAQ
Who will win Operário PR vs Avaí?
Our statistical model makes Operário PR the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Operário PR 40%, draw 30%, Avaí 30%.
Will both teams score in Operário PR vs Avaí?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Operário PR vs Avaí?
Expected goals are 1.15 for Operário PR and 0.92 for Avaí — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Operário PR vs Avaí?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Operário PR or draw is 71%.