Operário PR vs Vila Nova Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 21:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Operário PR vs Vila Nova
Model pick: Operário PR (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.22 – 0.91
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Operário PR | Vila Nova |
|---|
| League position | #5 (35 pts) | #3 (37 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.3 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.4 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
*Operário PR shown at home, Vila Nova shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Operário PR — last 5
DWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Vila Nova — last 5
LWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 37% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Operário PR (home) | Vila Nova (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-3-3 in 12 (1.4 / 1.3 goals per game) | 4-2-6 in 12 (0.9 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 37% |
| Top scorer | Boschilia (9) | Janderson (4) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.22 vs 0.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Operário PR or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Vila Nova or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Operário PR clean sheet | 40% |
| Vila Nova clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Operário PR is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Operário PR are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Operário PR vs Vila Nova — FAQ
Who will win Operário PR vs Vila Nova?
Our statistical model makes Operário PR the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Operário PR 44%, draw 28%, Vila Nova 28%.
Will both teams score in Operário PR vs Vila Nova?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Operário PR vs Vila Nova?
Expected goals are 1.22 for Operário PR and 0.91 for Vila Nova — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Operário PR vs Vila Nova?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Operário PR or draw is 72%.