Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 02:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa
Model pick: FC Tulsa (35%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.3 – 0.79
Total goals: 1.1
Over 2.5: 23%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Orange County SC | FC Tulsa |
|---|
| League position | #1 (34 pts) | #6 (29 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 44% | 38% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.0 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
*Orange County SC shown at home, FC Tulsa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Orange County SC — last 5
LWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
FC Tulsa — last 5
DWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Orange County SC (home) | FC Tulsa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-2-3 in 9 (1.2 / 1.1 goals per game) | 3-2-3 in 8 (1.1 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 33% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 42%
BTTS: 47%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.3 vs 0.79):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (34%) |
| Double chance — Orange County SC or draw (1X) | 55% |
| Double chance — FC Tulsa or draw (X2) | 87% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 58% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 3% / 97% |
| Orange County SC clean sheet | 45% |
| FC Tulsa clean sheet | 74% |
🎯 Our Verdict
FC Tulsa is the model's most likely outcome at
35%. Despite playing away, FC Tulsa edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (77% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa — FAQ
Who will win Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa?
Our statistical model makes FC Tulsa the most likely result at 35%. Full probabilities: Orange County SC 32%, draw 32%, FC Tulsa 35%.
Will both teams score in Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa?
Expected goals are 0.3 for Orange County SC and 0.79 for FC Tulsa — about 1.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (34%). Double chance for Orange County SC or draw is 55%.