Orlando City vs Nashville SC Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Orlando City vs Nashville SC
Model pick: Orlando City (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.57 – 1.13
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Orlando City | Nashville SC |
|---|
| League position | #13 (14 pts) | #1 (36 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.9 | 1.1 / 0.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 43% | 57% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 1.6 |
*Orlando City shown at home, Nashville SC shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Orlando City — last 5
DLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Nashville SC — last 5
LWLWW
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Orlando City (home) | Nashville SC (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-1-3 in 7 (2.0 / 1.9 goals per game) | 4-2-1 in 7 (1.1 / 0.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 43% |
| Top scorer | Martin Ojeda (11) | – |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.57 vs 1.13):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Orlando City or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Nashville SC or draw (X2) | 52% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Orlando City clean sheet | 32% |
| Nashville SC clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Orlando City is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Orlando City are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Orlando City vs Nashville SC — FAQ
Who will win Orlando City vs Nashville SC?
Our statistical model makes Orlando City the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Orlando City 45%, draw 26%, Nashville SC 28%.
Will both teams score in Orlando City vs Nashville SC?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Orlando City vs Nashville SC?
Expected goals are 1.57 for Orlando City and 1.13 for Nashville SC — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Orlando City vs Nashville SC?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Orlando City or draw is 73%.