Orlando City vs San Diego FC Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Orlando City vs San Diego FC
Model pick: Orlando City (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.46 – 1.31
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 64%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Orlando City | San Diego FC |
|---|
| League position | #13 (14 pts) | #12 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.9 | 1.2 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 43% | 17% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.8 | 2.2 / 1.2 |
*Orlando City shown at home, San Diego FC shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Orlando City — last 5
WDLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
San Diego FC — last 5
WWLWW
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 70% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Orlando City (home) | San Diego FC (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-1-3 in 7 (2.0 / 1.9 goals per game) | 1-2-3 in 6 (1.2 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Top scorer | Nicolas Mercau (13) | Petar Musa (16) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.46 vs 1.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Orlando City or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — San Diego FC or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Orlando City clean sheet | 27% |
| San Diego FC clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Orlando City is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Orlando City are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Orlando City vs San Diego FC — FAQ
Who will win Orlando City vs San Diego FC?
Our statistical model makes Orlando City the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Orlando City 44%, draw 24%, San Diego FC 31%.
Will both teams score in Orlando City vs San Diego FC?
The model gives a 64% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Orlando City vs San Diego FC?
Expected goals are 1.46 for Orlando City and 1.31 for San Diego FC — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Orlando City vs San Diego FC?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Orlando City or draw is 66%.