Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa Prediction & Preview
Super Lig (Turkey) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIG (TURKEY)
Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa
Model pick: Çorum FK (53%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.14 – 1.31
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Çorum FK | Kasımpaşa |
|---|
| League position | #7 (1 pts) | #11 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.6 | 1.8 / 0.6 |
*Çorum FK shown at home, Kasımpaşa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Çorum FK — last 5
WLWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Kasımpaşa — last 5
DWDWD
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Çorum FK (home) | Kasımpaşa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 60% |
| Top scorer | Mame Thiam (6) | – |
Super Lig (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Super Lig (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.14 vs 1.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Çorum FK or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Kasımpaşa or draw (X2) | 44% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| Çorum FK clean sheet | 27% |
| Kasımpaşa clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Çorum FK is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Çorum FK are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa — FAQ
Who will win Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model makes Çorum FK the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Çorum FK 53%, draw 22%, Kasımpaşa 25%.
Will both teams score in Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Expected goals are 2.14 for Çorum FK and 1.31 for Kasımpaşa — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Çorum FK or draw is 77%.