Oryol vs Ryazan Prediction & Preview
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
FNL 2 DIVISION B (RUSSIA)
Oryol vs Ryazan
Model pick: Ryazan (92%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.01 – 3.01
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 12%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Oryol | Ryazan |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 2.0 | 2.6 / 0.0 |
*Oryol shown at home, Ryazan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Oryol — last 5
LLLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Ryazan — last 5
WWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 100% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Oryol (home) | Ryazan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% |
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.1
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 62%
Use these FNL 2 Division B (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.01 vs 3.01):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-3 (22%) |
| Double chance — Oryol or draw (1X) | 5% |
| Double chance — Ryazan or draw (X2) | 100% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 95% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Oryol clean sheet | 5% |
| Ryazan clean sheet | 99% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ryazan is the model's most likely outcome at
92%. Despite playing away, Ryazan edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Oryol vs Ryazan — FAQ
Who will win Oryol vs Ryazan?
Our statistical model makes Ryazan the most likely result at 92%. Full probabilities: Oryol 0%, draw 8%, Ryazan 92%.
Will both teams score in Oryol vs Ryazan?
The model gives a 12% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Oryol vs Ryazan?
Expected goals are 0.01 for Oryol and 3.01 for Ryazan — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Oryol vs Ryazan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-3 (22%). Double chance for Oryol or draw is 5%.