Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Korona Kielce II Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 17:29 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Korona Kielce II
Model pick: Draw (72%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
24%
Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski
Expected goals: 0.24 – 0.04
Total goals: 0.3
Over 2.5: 4%
Both teams score: 10%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski | Korona Kielce II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1.75 / 3.5 |
*Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski shown at home, Korona Kielce II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski — last 5
DLWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Korona Kielce II — last 5
LDLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski (home) | Korona Kielce II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.24 vs 0.04):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (76%) |
| Double chance — Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski or draw (1X) | 97% |
| Double chance — Korona Kielce II or draw (X2) | 79% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 24% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 3% / 97% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 0% / 100% |
| Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski clean sheet | 96% |
| Korona Kielce II clean sheet | 79% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
72%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (96% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Korona Kielce II — FAQ
Who will win Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Korona Kielce II?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 72%. Full probabilities: Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski 24%, draw 72%, Korona Kielce II 5%.
Will both teams score in Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Korona Kielce II?
The model gives a 10% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Korona Kielce II?
Expected goals are 0.24 for Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski and 0.04 for Korona Kielce II — about 0.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Korona Kielce II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (76%). Double chance for Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski or draw is 97%.