Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Lubaczow Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Lubaczow
Model pick: Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski (61%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
61%
Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski
Expected goals: 1.15 – 0.11
Total goals: 1.3
Over 2.5: 26%
Both teams score: 24%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski | Lubaczow |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 2.0 |
*Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski shown at home, Lubaczow shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski — last 5
LWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Lubaczow — last 5
LDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski (home) | Lubaczow (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 75% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.25
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 67%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.15 vs 0.11):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (33%) |
| Double chance — Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski or draw (1X) | 96% |
| Double chance — Lubaczow or draw (X2) | 36% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 4% / 96% |
| Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski clean sheet | 90% |
| Lubaczow clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski are backed at home, where they average 2.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (74% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Lubaczow — FAQ
Who will win Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Lubaczow?
Our statistical model makes Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski 61%, draw 34%, Lubaczow 5%.
Will both teams score in Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Lubaczow?
The model gives a 24% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Lubaczow?
Expected goals are 1.15 for Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski and 0.11 for Lubaczow — about 1.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Lubaczow?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (33%). Double chance for Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski or draw is 96%.