Pérez Zeledón vs Alajuelense Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Costa Rica) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 02:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COSTA RICA)
Pérez Zeledón vs Alajuelense
Model pick: Alajuelense (51%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.8 – 1.56
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pérez Zeledón | Alajuelense |
|---|
| League position | #10 (4 pts) | #2 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 0.5 | 2.0 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
*Pérez Zeledón shown at home, Alajuelense shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pérez Zeledón — last 5
LWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Alajuelense — last 5
WWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pérez Zeledón (home) | Alajuelense (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (0.5 / 0.5 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (2.0 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 51% |
| Top scorer | – | Santiago van der Putten (1) |
Primera Division (Costa Rica) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.7
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Primera Division (Costa Rica) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.8 vs 1.56):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Pérez Zeledón or draw (1X) | 45% |
| Double chance — Alajuelense or draw (X2) | 81% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Pérez Zeledón clean sheet | 21% |
| Alajuelense clean sheet | 45% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Alajuelense is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Despite playing away, Alajuelense edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pérez Zeledón vs Alajuelense — FAQ
Who will win Pérez Zeledón vs Alajuelense?
Our statistical model makes Alajuelense the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Pérez Zeledón 22%, draw 27%, Alajuelense 51%.
Will both teams score in Pérez Zeledón vs Alajuelense?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Pérez Zeledón vs Alajuelense?
Expected goals are 0.8 for Pérez Zeledón and 1.56 for Alajuelense — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pérez Zeledón vs Alajuelense?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Pérez Zeledón or draw is 45%.