Pachuca vs Guadalajara Prediction & Preview
Liga MX (Mexico) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA MX (MEXICO)
Pachuca vs Guadalajara
Model pick: Guadalajara (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.18 – 1.14
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pachuca | Guadalajara |
|---|
| League position | #15 (3 pts) | #4 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 2.5 | 1.0 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.8 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
*Pachuca shown at home, Guadalajara shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pachuca — last 5
LLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Guadalajara — last 5
LWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pachuca (home) | Guadalajara (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-2 in 2 (1.5 / 2.5 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.0 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 45% |
| Top scorer | Kenedy (9) | – |
Liga MX (Mexico) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.69
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Liga MX (Mexico) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.18 vs 1.14):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Pachuca or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Guadalajara or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Pachuca clean sheet | 32% |
| Guadalajara clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Guadalajara is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Guadalajara edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pachuca vs Guadalajara — FAQ
Who will win Pachuca vs Guadalajara?
Our statistical model makes Guadalajara the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Pachuca 34%, draw 28%, Guadalajara 38%.
Will both teams score in Pachuca vs Guadalajara?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Pachuca vs Guadalajara?
Expected goals are 1.18 for Pachuca and 1.14 for Guadalajara — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pachuca vs Guadalajara?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Pachuca or draw is 65%.