Pachuca vs Puebla Prediction & Preview
Liga MX (Mexico) · Aug 18, 2026 · kickoff 03:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA MX (MEXICO)
Pachuca vs Puebla
Model pick: Pachuca (61%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.92 – 0.84
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pachuca | Puebla |
|---|
| League position | #13 (3 pts) | #11 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 2.2 |
*Pachuca shown at home, Puebla shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pachuca — last 5
LLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Puebla — last 5
WLDLL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pachuca (home) | Puebla (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% |
| Top scorer | Kenedy (9) | Emiliano Gomez (8) |
Liga MX (Mexico) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.68
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Liga MX (Mexico) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.92 vs 0.84):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Pachuca or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — Puebla or draw (X2) | 37% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Pachuca clean sheet | 43% |
| Puebla clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pachuca is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Pachuca are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pachuca vs Puebla — FAQ
Who will win Pachuca vs Puebla?
Our statistical model makes Pachuca the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Pachuca 61%, draw 23%, Puebla 16%.
Will both teams score in Pachuca vs Puebla?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Pachuca vs Puebla?
Expected goals are 1.92 for Pachuca and 0.84 for Puebla — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pachuca vs Puebla?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (12%). Double chance for Pachuca or draw is 84%.