Pachuca vs Querétaro Prediction & Preview
Liga MX (Mexico) · Jul 27, 2026 · kickoff 01:06 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA MX (MEXICO)
Pachuca vs Querétaro
Model pick: Pachuca (54%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.67 – 0.82
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pachuca | Querétaro |
|---|
| League position | #2 (3 pts) | #15 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.4 | 1.0 / 0.8 |
*Pachuca shown at home, Querétaro shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pachuca — last 5
WWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Querétaro — last 5
DDWWL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pachuca (home) | Querétaro (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% |
| Top scorer | Kenedy (9) | Ali Avila (11) |
Liga MX (Mexico) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.68
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Liga MX (Mexico) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.67 vs 0.82):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Pachuca or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Querétaro or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Pachuca clean sheet | 44% |
| Querétaro clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pachuca is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Pachuca are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pachuca vs Querétaro — FAQ
Who will win Pachuca vs Querétaro?
Our statistical model makes Pachuca the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Pachuca 54%, draw 26%, Querétaro 20%.
Will both teams score in Pachuca vs Querétaro?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Pachuca vs Querétaro?
Expected goals are 1.67 for Pachuca and 0.82 for Querétaro — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pachuca vs Querétaro?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Pachuca or draw is 82%.