Paderborn vs Freiburg Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga (Germany) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA (GERMANY)
Paderborn vs Freiburg
Model pick: Freiburg (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.75 – 1.03
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 37%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Paderborn | Freiburg |
|---|
| League position | #3 (62 pts) | #7 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.0 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.0 | 3.8 / 0.8 |
*Paderborn shown at home, Freiburg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Paderborn — last 5
WWDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 71% of home games go over 2.5.
Freiburg — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 61% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Paderborn (home) | Freiburg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 1-2-1 in 4 (1.0 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 61% |
| Top scorer | Laurin Curda (7) | Vincenzo Grifo (5) |
Bundesliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.12
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 59%
Use these Bundesliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.75 vs 1.03):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (17%) |
| Double chance — Paderborn or draw (1X) | 59% |
| Double chance — Freiburg or draw (X2) | 74% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 67% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 53% / 47% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 11% / 89% |
| Paderborn clean sheet | 36% |
| Freiburg clean sheet | 47% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Freiburg is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Freiburg edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (63% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Paderborn vs Freiburg — FAQ
Who will win Paderborn vs Freiburg?
Our statistical model makes Freiburg the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Paderborn 29%, draw 29%, Freiburg 42%.
Will both teams score in Paderborn vs Freiburg?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Paderborn vs Freiburg?
Expected goals are 0.75 for Paderborn and 1.03 for Freiburg — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Paderborn vs Freiburg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (17%). Double chance for Paderborn or draw is 59%.