Paide vs Nõmme United Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Paide vs Nõmme United
Model pick: Paide (66%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.81 – 0.53
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Paide | Nõmme United |
|---|
| League position | #4 (36 pts) | #7 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 2.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 60% | 36% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 3.0 / 1.8 |
*Paide shown at home, Nõmme United shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Paide — last 5
DWLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 63% of home games go over 2.5.
Nõmme United — last 5
WWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Paide (home) | Nõmme United (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-1-3 in 10 (1.3 / 0.9 goals per game) | 4-1-6 in 11 (1.4 / 2.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 45% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.81 vs 0.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Paide or draw (1X) | 95% |
| Double chance — Nõmme United or draw (X2) | 16% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 89% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Paide clean sheet | 59% |
| Nõmme United clean sheet | 6% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Paide is the model's most likely outcome at
66%. Paide are backed at home, where they average 2.1 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Paide vs Nõmme United — FAQ
Who will win Paide vs Nõmme United?
Our statistical model makes Paide the most likely result at 66%. Full probabilities: Paide 66%, draw 19%, Nõmme United 15%.
Will both teams score in Paide vs Nõmme United?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Paide vs Nõmme United?
Expected goals are 2.81 for Paide and 0.53 for Nõmme United — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Paide vs Nõmme United?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (14%). Double chance for Paide or draw is 95%.