Paju Citizen vs Daegu Prediction & Preview
K League 2 (South Korea) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 10:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 2 (SOUTH KOREA)
Paju Citizen vs Daegu
Model pick: Daegu (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.06 – 1.16
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Paju Citizen | Daegu |
|---|
| League position | #11 (25 pts) | #2 (42 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 1.2 | 1.9 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 27% | 45% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
*Paju Citizen shown at home, Daegu shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Paju Citizen — last 5
WLWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Daegu — last 5
LWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Paju Citizen (home) | Daegu (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-1-7 in 11 (0.9 / 1.2 goals per game) | 5-4-2 in 11 (1.9 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% |
K League 2 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.51
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 51%
Use these K League 2 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.06 vs 1.16):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Paju Citizen or draw (1X) | 62% |
| Double chance — Daegu or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Paju Citizen clean sheet | 31% |
| Daegu clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Daegu is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Despite playing away, Daegu edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Paju Citizen vs Daegu — FAQ
Who will win Paju Citizen vs Daegu?
Our statistical model makes Daegu the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Paju Citizen 33%, draw 30%, Daegu 37%.
Will both teams score in Paju Citizen vs Daegu?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Paju Citizen vs Daegu?
Expected goals are 1.06 for Paju Citizen and 1.16 for Daegu — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Paju Citizen vs Daegu?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Paju Citizen or draw is 62%.