Paju Citizen vs Suwon Prediction & Preview
K League 2 (South Korea) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 10:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 2 (SOUTH KOREA)
Paju Citizen vs Suwon
Model pick: Suwon (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.57 – 1.17
Total goals: 1.7
Over 2.5: 36%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Paju Citizen | Suwon |
|---|
| League position | #10 (21 pts) | #5 (33 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 1.2 | 2.0 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 22% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.4 | 2.6 / 1.4 |
*Paju Citizen shown at home, Suwon shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Paju Citizen — last 5
WDLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Suwon — last 5
WWDWL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Paju Citizen (home) | Suwon (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-6 in 9 (0.9 / 1.2 goals per game) | 5-2-3 in 10 (2.0 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 47% |
K League 2 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 51%
Use these K League 2 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.57 vs 1.17):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (21%) |
| Double chance — Paju Citizen or draw (1X) | 49% |
| Double chance — Suwon or draw (X2) | 82% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 52% / 48% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 10% / 90% |
| Paju Citizen clean sheet | 31% |
| Suwon clean sheet | 57% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Suwon is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Despite playing away, Suwon edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (64% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Paju Citizen vs Suwon — FAQ
Who will win Paju Citizen vs Suwon?
Our statistical model makes Suwon the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Paju Citizen 20%, draw 32%, Suwon 48%.
Will both teams score in Paju Citizen vs Suwon?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Paju Citizen vs Suwon?
Expected goals are 0.57 for Paju Citizen and 1.17 for Suwon — about 1.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Paju Citizen vs Suwon?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (21%). Double chance for Paju Citizen or draw is 49%.