Pakhtakor vs Andijan Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 15:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Pakhtakor vs Andijan
Model pick: Pakhtakor (65%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.21 – 0.79
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pakhtakor | Andijan |
|---|
| League position | #2 (40 pts) | #7 (27 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
*Pakhtakor shown at home, Andijan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pakhtakor — last 5
WWDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Andijan — last 5
DLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pakhtakor (home) | Andijan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-4-1 in 10 (1.8 / 1.2 goals per game) | 3-2-4 in 9 (1.2 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.21 vs 0.79):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Pakhtakor or draw (1X) | 88% |
| Double chance — Andijan or draw (X2) | 30% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Pakhtakor clean sheet | 45% |
| Andijan clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pakhtakor is the model's most likely outcome at
65%. Pakhtakor are backed at home, where they average 2.1 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pakhtakor vs Andijan — FAQ
Who will win Pakhtakor vs Andijan?
Our statistical model makes Pakhtakor the most likely result at 65%. Full probabilities: Pakhtakor 65%, draw 21%, Andijan 14%.
Will both teams score in Pakhtakor vs Andijan?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Pakhtakor vs Andijan?
Expected goals are 2.21 for Pakhtakor and 0.79 for Andijan — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pakhtakor vs Andijan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (12%). Double chance for Pakhtakor or draw is 88%.