Pakhtakor vs Surkhon Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Pakhtakor vs Surkhon
Model pick: Pakhtakor (60%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.74 – 0.64
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pakhtakor | Surkhon |
|---|
| League position | #2 (35 pts) | #14 (18 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.3 | 1.0 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 38% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
*Pakhtakor shown at home, Surkhon shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pakhtakor — last 5
WWDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Surkhon — last 5
LLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pakhtakor (home) | Surkhon (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-1 in 9 (2.0 / 1.3 goals per game) | 3-1-4 in 8 (1.0 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.74 vs 0.64):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Pakhtakor or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Surkhon or draw (X2) | 36% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Pakhtakor clean sheet | 53% |
| Surkhon clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pakhtakor is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Pakhtakor are backed at home, where they average 2.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pakhtakor vs Surkhon — FAQ
Who will win Pakhtakor vs Surkhon?
Our statistical model makes Pakhtakor the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Pakhtakor 60%, draw 25%, Surkhon 16%.
Will both teams score in Pakhtakor vs Surkhon?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Pakhtakor vs Surkhon?
Expected goals are 1.74 for Pakhtakor and 0.64 for Surkhon — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pakhtakor vs Surkhon?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Pakhtakor or draw is 87%.