Paksi SE vs Debrecen Prediction & Preview
NB I (Hungary) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB I (HUNGARY)
Paksi SE vs Debrecen
Model pick: Paksi SE (49%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.03 – 1.41
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Paksi SE | Debrecen |
|---|
| League position | #6 (8 pts) | #11 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.7 / 1.3 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.2 | 1.0 / 1.6 |
*Paksi SE shown at home, Debrecen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Paksi SE — last 5
LDLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 64% of home games go over 2.5.
Debrecen — last 5
WLDDD
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Paksi SE (home) | Debrecen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-0 in 3 (2.7 / 1.3 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 56% |
NB I (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.82
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 56%
Use these NB I (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.03 vs 1.41):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Paksi SE or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Debrecen or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| Paksi SE clean sheet | 24% |
| Debrecen clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Paksi SE is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Paksi SE are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Paksi SE vs Debrecen — FAQ
Who will win Paksi SE vs Debrecen?
Our statistical model makes Paksi SE the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Paksi SE 49%, draw 23%, Debrecen 28%.
Will both teams score in Paksi SE vs Debrecen?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Paksi SE vs Debrecen?
Expected goals are 2.03 for Paksi SE and 1.41 for Debrecen — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Paksi SE vs Debrecen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for Paksi SE or draw is 73%.