Paksi SE vs Ferencvaros Prediction & Preview
NB I (Hungary) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB I (HUNGARY)
Paksi SE vs Ferencvaros
Model pick: Ferencvaros (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.31 – 1.83
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Paksi SE | Ferencvaros |
|---|
| League position | #6 (0 pts) | #12 (15 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.2 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 2.2 | 2.2 / 0.4 |
*Paksi SE shown at home, Ferencvaros shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Paksi SE — last 5
DWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 64% of home games go over 2.5.
Ferencvaros — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 35% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Paksi SE (home) | Ferencvaros (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 2-1-1 in 4 (1.2 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 35% |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 54% |
| Top scorer | – | Lenny Joseph (2) |
NB I (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 56%
Use these NB I (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.31 vs 1.83):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Paksi SE or draw (1X) | 50% |
| Double chance — Ferencvaros or draw (X2) | 73% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Paksi SE clean sheet | 16% |
| Ferencvaros clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ferencvaros is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Despite playing away, Ferencvaros edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Paksi SE vs Ferencvaros — FAQ
Who will win Paksi SE vs Ferencvaros?
Our statistical model makes Ferencvaros the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Paksi SE 28%, draw 24%, Ferencvaros 47%.
Will both teams score in Paksi SE vs Ferencvaros?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Paksi SE vs Ferencvaros?
Expected goals are 1.31 for Paksi SE and 1.83 for Ferencvaros — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Paksi SE vs Ferencvaros?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Paksi SE or draw is 50%.