Paksi SE vs Honvéd Prediction & Preview
NB I (Hungary) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB I (HUNGARY)
Paksi SE vs Honvéd
Model pick: Paksi SE (55%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.1 – 1.15
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Paksi SE | Honvéd |
|---|
| League position | #4 (3 pts) | #8 (2 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 4.0 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 2.6 | 2.6 / 1.2 |
*Paksi SE shown at home, Honvéd shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Paksi SE — last 5
WLLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 64% of home games go over 2.5.
Honvéd — last 5
WWLDD
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Paksi SE (home) | Honvéd (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (4.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 50% |
NB I (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.82
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 56%
Use these NB I (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.1 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Paksi SE or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Honvéd or draw (X2) | 41% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Paksi SE clean sheet | 32% |
| Honvéd clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Paksi SE is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Paksi SE are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Paksi SE vs Honvéd — FAQ
Who will win Paksi SE vs Honvéd?
Our statistical model makes Paksi SE the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: Paksi SE 55%, draw 23%, Honvéd 22%.
Will both teams score in Paksi SE vs Honvéd?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Paksi SE vs Honvéd?
Expected goals are 2.1 for Paksi SE and 1.15 for Honvéd — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Paksi SE vs Honvéd?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Paksi SE or draw is 80%.