Paksi SE vs Újpest Prediction & Preview
NB I (Hungary) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB I (HUNGARY)
Paksi SE vs Újpest
Model pick: Paksi SE (56%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.35 – 1.36
Total goals: 3.7
Over 2.5: 63%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Paksi SE | Újpest |
|---|
| League position | #7 (4 pts) | #2 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 2.0 | 2.5 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 2.6 | 2.4 / 1.4 |
*Paksi SE shown at home, Újpest shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Paksi SE — last 5
LWDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 64% of home games go over 2.5.
Újpest — last 5
WLWWD
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Paksi SE (home) | Újpest (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (3.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (2.5 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 58% |
NB I (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.82
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 56%
Use these NB I (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.35 vs 1.36):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Paksi SE or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Újpest or draw (X2) | 41% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 51% / 49% |
| Paksi SE clean sheet | 26% |
| Újpest clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Paksi SE is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Paksi SE are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.7, this shapes as an open game (63% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Paksi SE vs Újpest — FAQ
Who will win Paksi SE vs Újpest?
Our statistical model makes Paksi SE the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Paksi SE 56%, draw 21%, Újpest 23%.
Will both teams score in Paksi SE vs Újpest?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Paksi SE vs Újpest?
Expected goals are 2.35 for Paksi SE and 1.36 for Újpest — about 3.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Paksi SE vs Újpest?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for Paksi SE or draw is 79%.