Pamplona vs Aoiz Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Pamplona vs Aoiz
Model pick: Pamplona (62%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.03 – 0.79
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pamplona | Aoiz |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
*Pamplona shown at home, Aoiz shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pamplona — last 5
DDWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 43% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Aoiz — last 5
LWDWL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pamplona (home) | Aoiz (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 43% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 47% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.03 vs 0.79):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Pamplona or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Aoiz or draw (X2) | 34% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Pamplona clean sheet | 45% |
| Aoiz clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pamplona is the model's most likely outcome at
62%. Pamplona are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pamplona vs Aoiz — FAQ
Who will win Pamplona vs Aoiz?
Our statistical model makes Pamplona the most likely result at 62%. Full probabilities: Pamplona 62%, draw 22%, Aoiz 16%.
Will both teams score in Pamplona vs Aoiz?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Pamplona vs Aoiz?
Expected goals are 2.03 for Pamplona and 0.79 for Aoiz — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pamplona vs Aoiz?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (12%). Double chance for Pamplona or draw is 86%.