Pardubice vs Jablonec Prediction & Preview
Czech Liga (Czech_Republic) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CZECH LIGA (CZECH_REPUBLIC)
Pardubice vs Jablonec
Model pick: Jablonec (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.09 – 1.53
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pardubice | Jablonec |
|---|
| League position | #16 (0 pts) | #5 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
*Pardubice shown at home, Jablonec shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pardubice — last 5
DDLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Jablonec — last 5
LWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pardubice (home) | Jablonec (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 47% |
| Top scorer | Vojtech Patrak (6) | Jan Chramosta (6) |
Czech Liga (Czech_Republic) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Czech Liga (Czech_Republic) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.09 vs 1.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Pardubice or draw (1X) | 53% |
| Double chance — Jablonec or draw (X2) | 73% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Pardubice clean sheet | 22% |
| Jablonec clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Jablonec is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Jablonec edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pardubice vs Jablonec — FAQ
Who will win Pardubice vs Jablonec?
Our statistical model makes Jablonec the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Pardubice 34%, draw 28%, Jablonec 38%.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Jablonec?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Pardubice vs Jablonec?
Expected goals are 1.09 for Pardubice and 1.53 for Jablonec — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pardubice vs Jablonec?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Pardubice or draw is 53%.