Parma vs Cagliari Prediction & Preview
SerieA · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIEA
Parma vs Cagliari
Model pick: Parma (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.22 – 1.13
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Parma | Cagliari |
|---|
| League position | #19 (0 pts) | #17 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.8 | 1.0 / 0.4 |
*Parma shown at home, Cagliari shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Parma — last 5
WDDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Cagliari — last 5
DWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Parma (home) | Cagliari (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 48% |
SerieA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.75
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 54%
Use these SerieA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.22 vs 1.13):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Parma or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Cagliari or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Parma clean sheet | 32% |
| Cagliari clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Parma is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Parma are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Parma vs Cagliari — FAQ
Who will win Parma vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model makes Parma the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Parma 37%, draw 30%, Cagliari 33%.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Cagliari?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Parma vs Cagliari?
Expected goals are 1.22 for Parma and 1.13 for Cagliari — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Parma vs Cagliari?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Parma or draw is 66%.