Parma vs Monza Prediction & Preview
SerieA · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIEA
Parma vs Monza
Model pick: Parma (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.2 – 1.04
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Parma | Monza |
|---|
| League position | #17 (0 pts) | #18 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 4.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.2 | 2.6 / 2.4 |
*Parma shown at home, Monza shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Parma — last 5
DLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Monza — last 5
WDWLL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Parma (home) | Monza (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 4.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 43% |
SerieA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.74
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 54%
Use these SerieA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.2 vs 1.04):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Parma or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Monza or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Parma clean sheet | 35% |
| Monza clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Parma is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Parma are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Parma vs Monza — FAQ
Who will win Parma vs Monza?
Our statistical model makes Parma the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Parma 39%, draw 30%, Monza 31%.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Monza?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Parma vs Monza?
Expected goals are 1.2 for Parma and 1.04 for Monza — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Parma vs Monza?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Parma or draw is 68%.