Partick Thistle vs Livingston Prediction & Preview
Division1 (Scotland) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION1 (SCOTLAND)
Partick Thistle vs Livingston
Model pick: Livingston (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.95 – 1.2
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Partick Thistle | Livingston |
|---|
| League position | #3 (3 pts) | #1 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.4 | 3.0 / 0.6 |
*Partick Thistle shown at home, Livingston shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Partick Thistle — last 5
WWLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Livingston — last 5
WWLWW
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Partick Thistle (home) | Livingston (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 54% |
| Top scorer | – | Scott Pittman (5) |
Division1 (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Division1 (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.95 vs 1.2):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Partick Thistle or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Livingston or draw (X2) | 71% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Partick Thistle clean sheet | 30% |
| Livingston clean sheet | 39% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Livingston is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Livingston edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Partick Thistle vs Livingston — FAQ
Who will win Partick Thistle vs Livingston?
Our statistical model makes Livingston the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Partick Thistle 30%, draw 30%, Livingston 40%.
Will both teams score in Partick Thistle vs Livingston?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Partick Thistle vs Livingston?
Expected goals are 0.95 for Partick Thistle and 1.2 for Livingston — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Partick Thistle vs Livingston?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Partick Thistle or draw is 58%.