Paysandu vs Brusque Prediction & Preview
Serie C (Brazil) · Sep 07, 2026 · kickoff 21:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C (BRAZIL)
Paysandu vs Brusque
Model pick: Brusque (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.24 – 1.9
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Paysandu | Brusque |
|---|
| League position | #7 (29 pts) | #2 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 11% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
*Paysandu shown at home, Brusque shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Paysandu — last 5
LWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Brusque — last 5
WLWDD
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Paysandu (home) | Brusque (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-3 in 10 (1.7 / 1.5 goals per game) | 1-4-4 in 9 (1.1 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 42% |
Serie C (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.24
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 44%
Use these Serie C (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.24 vs 1.9):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Paysandu or draw (1X) | 47% |
| Double chance — Brusque or draw (X2) | 75% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Paysandu clean sheet | 15% |
| Brusque clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Brusque is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Despite playing away, Brusque edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Paysandu vs Brusque — FAQ
Who will win Paysandu vs Brusque?
Our statistical model makes Brusque the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Paysandu 26%, draw 24%, Brusque 50%.
Will both teams score in Paysandu vs Brusque?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Paysandu vs Brusque?
Expected goals are 1.24 for Paysandu and 1.9 for Brusque — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Paysandu vs Brusque?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Paysandu or draw is 47%.