Paysandu vs Maringa FC Prediction & Preview
Serie C (Brazil) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C (BRAZIL)
Paysandu vs Maringa FC
Model pick: Paysandu (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.81 – 1.55
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Paysandu | Maringa FC |
|---|
| League position | #3 (29 pts) | #10 (27 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 1.6 | 1.7 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.8 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*Paysandu shown at home, Maringa FC shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Paysandu — last 5
WLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Maringa FC — last 5
WDLDW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Paysandu (home) | Maringa FC (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-2 in 9 (1.9 / 1.6 goals per game) | 3-4-2 in 9 (1.7 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 0% |
Serie C (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 45%
Use these Serie C (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.81 vs 1.55):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Paysandu or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Maringa FC or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Paysandu clean sheet | 21% |
| Maringa FC clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Paysandu is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Paysandu are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Paysandu vs Maringa FC — FAQ
Who will win Paysandu vs Maringa FC?
Our statistical model makes Paysandu the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Paysandu 42%, draw 24%, Maringa FC 33%.
Will both teams score in Paysandu vs Maringa FC?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Paysandu vs Maringa FC?
Expected goals are 1.81 for Paysandu and 1.55 for Maringa FC — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Paysandu vs Maringa FC?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Paysandu or draw is 67%.