PE Sant Jordi vs Migjorn Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
PE Sant Jordi vs Migjorn
Model pick: PE Sant Jordi (56%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.88 – 0.93
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| PE Sant Jordi | Migjorn |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.8 | 0.8 / 2.6 |
*PE Sant Jordi shown at home, Migjorn shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
PE Sant Jordi — last 5
LWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
Migjorn — last 5
LWDLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | PE Sant Jordi (home) | Migjorn (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 24% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 53% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.88 vs 0.93):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — PE Sant Jordi or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Migjorn or draw (X2) | 40% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| PE Sant Jordi clean sheet | 39% |
| Migjorn clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
PE Sant Jordi is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. PE Sant Jordi are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ PE Sant Jordi vs Migjorn — FAQ
Who will win PE Sant Jordi vs Migjorn?
Our statistical model makes PE Sant Jordi the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: PE Sant Jordi 56%, draw 24%, Migjorn 20%.
Will both teams score in PE Sant Jordi vs Migjorn?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in PE Sant Jordi vs Migjorn?
Expected goals are 1.88 for PE Sant Jordi and 0.93 for Migjorn — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in PE Sant Jordi vs Migjorn?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (11%). Double chance for PE Sant Jordi or draw is 82%.