PEC Zwolle vs NEC Prediction & Preview
Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EREDIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
PEC Zwolle vs NEC
Model pick: NEC (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.34 – 1.86
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| PEC Zwolle | NEC |
|---|
| League position | #14 (3 pts) | #11 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 2.0 | 4.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.2 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
*PEC Zwolle shown at home, NEC shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
PEC Zwolle — last 5
LLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
NEC — last 5
DLWWL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | PEC Zwolle (home) | NEC (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (4.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 56% |
| Top scorer | – | Basar Onal (1) |
Eredivisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.1
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eredivisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.34 vs 1.86):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — PEC Zwolle or draw (1X) | 50% |
| Double chance — NEC or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| PEC Zwolle clean sheet | 16% |
| NEC clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
NEC is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Despite playing away, NEC edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ PEC Zwolle vs NEC — FAQ
Who will win PEC Zwolle vs NEC?
Our statistical model makes NEC the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: PEC Zwolle 29%, draw 24%, NEC 47%.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs NEC?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in PEC Zwolle vs NEC?
Expected goals are 1.34 for PEC Zwolle and 1.86 for NEC — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in PEC Zwolle vs NEC?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for PEC Zwolle or draw is 50%.