Penafiel vs Sporting CP II Prediction & Preview
Division2 (Portugal) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION2 (PORTUGAL)
Penafiel vs Sporting CP II
Model pick: Penafiel (35%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.96 – 1.09
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Penafiel | Sporting CP II |
|---|
| League position | #12 (1 pts) | #6 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.8 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
*Penafiel shown at home, Sporting CP II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Penafiel — last 5
LLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Sporting CP II — last 5
DDLWW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Penafiel (home) | Sporting CP II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 45% |
| Top scorer | – | Leonardo Vonic (4) |
Division2 (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Division2 (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.96 vs 1.09):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Penafiel or draw (1X) | 62% |
| Double chance — Sporting CP II or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Penafiel clean sheet | 34% |
| Sporting CP II clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Penafiel is the model's most likely outcome at
35%. Penafiel are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Penafiel vs Sporting CP II — FAQ
Who will win Penafiel vs Sporting CP II?
Our statistical model makes Penafiel the most likely result at 35%. Full probabilities: Penafiel 35%, draw 30%, Sporting CP II 35%.
Will both teams score in Penafiel vs Sporting CP II?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Penafiel vs Sporting CP II?
Expected goals are 0.96 for Penafiel and 1.09 for Sporting CP II — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Penafiel vs Sporting CP II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Penafiel or draw is 62%.