Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor Prediction & Preview
Lig A (Turkey) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIG A (TURKEY)
Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor
Model pick: Pendikspor (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.47 – 0.91
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pendikspor | Ümraniyespor |
|---|
| League position | #12 (5 pts) | #14 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
*Pendikspor shown at home, Ümraniyespor shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pendikspor — last 5
WDLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Ümraniyespor — last 5
LDLDD
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pendikspor (home) | Ümraniyespor (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-0 in 2 (1.5 / 1.5 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (1.5 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 48% |
| Top scorer | Jonson Clarke-Harris (6) | Jurgen Bardhi (6) |
Lig A (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Lig A (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.47 vs 0.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Pendikspor or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Ümraniyespor or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Pendikspor clean sheet | 40% |
| Ümraniyespor clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pendikspor is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Pendikspor are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor — FAQ
Who will win Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our statistical model makes Pendikspor the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Pendikspor 48%, draw 28%, Ümraniyespor 25%.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Expected goals are 1.47 for Pendikspor and 0.91 for Ümraniyespor — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Pendikspor or draw is 77%.