Pergolettese vs Brescia Prediction & Preview
Serie C - Group A (Italy) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C - GROUP A (ITALY)
Pergolettese vs Brescia
Model pick: Brescia (49%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.65 – 1.28
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 39%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pergolettese | Brescia |
|---|
| League position | #16 (41 pts) | #2 (69 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.3 | 1.0 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 37% | 47% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*Pergolettese shown at home, Brescia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pergolettese — last 5
WWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Brescia — last 5
LDDLW
On the road: clean sheet 52% of the time; 20% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pergolettese (home) | Brescia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-3-9 in 19 (1.1 / 1.3 goals per game) | 9-7-3 in 19 (1.0 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 52% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 32% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 20% |
Serie C - Group A (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.33
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Serie C - Group A (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.65 vs 1.28):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (19%) |
| Double chance — Pergolettese or draw (1X) | 48% |
| Double chance — Brescia or draw (X2) | 81% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 57% / 43% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Pergolettese clean sheet | 28% |
| Brescia clean sheet | 52% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Brescia is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Despite playing away, Brescia edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (61% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pergolettese vs Brescia — FAQ
Who will win Pergolettese vs Brescia?
Our statistical model makes Brescia the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Pergolettese 21%, draw 30%, Brescia 49%.
Will both teams score in Pergolettese vs Brescia?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Pergolettese vs Brescia?
Expected goals are 0.65 for Pergolettese and 1.28 for Brescia — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pergolettese vs Brescia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (19%). Double chance for Pergolettese or draw is 48%.