Persepolis vs Esteghlal Khuzestan Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Persepolis vs Esteghlal Khuzestan
Model pick: Persepolis (61%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.65 – 0.51
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Persepolis | Esteghlal Khuzestan |
|---|
| League position | #2 (0 pts) | #14 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.8 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*Persepolis shown at home, Esteghlal Khuzestan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Persepolis — last 5
LWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 63% of the time; 30% of home games go over 2.5.
Esteghlal Khuzestan — last 5
LDWWL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 37% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Persepolis (home) | Esteghlal Khuzestan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 63% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 31% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 37% |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 42%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.65 vs 0.51):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Persepolis or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw (X2) | 35% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Persepolis clean sheet | 60% |
| Esteghlal Khuzestan clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Persepolis is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Persepolis are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Persepolis vs Esteghlal Khuzestan — FAQ
Who will win Persepolis vs Esteghlal Khuzestan?
Our statistical model makes Persepolis the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Persepolis 61%, draw 26%, Esteghlal Khuzestan 13%.
Will both teams score in Persepolis vs Esteghlal Khuzestan?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Persepolis vs Esteghlal Khuzestan?
Expected goals are 1.65 for Persepolis and 0.51 for Esteghlal Khuzestan — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Persepolis vs Esteghlal Khuzestan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19%). Double chance for Persepolis or draw is 89%.