Peterborough United vs Stevenage Prediction & Preview
League One (England) · Sep 01, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE ONE (ENGLAND)
Peterborough United vs Stevenage
Model pick: Peterborough United (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.37 – 0.99
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Peterborough United | Stevenage |
|---|
| League position | #13 (3 pts) | #19 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
*Peterborough United shown at home, Stevenage shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Peterborough United — last 5
LWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Stevenage — last 5
WWDLL
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Peterborough United (home) | Stevenage (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 39% |
| Top scorer | Harry Leonard (15) | Jamie Reid (14) |
League One (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these League One (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.37 vs 0.99):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Peterborough United or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Stevenage or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Peterborough United clean sheet | 37% |
| Stevenage clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Peterborough United is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Peterborough United are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Peterborough United vs Stevenage — FAQ
Who will win Peterborough United vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model makes Peterborough United the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Peterborough United 44%, draw 28%, Stevenage 28%.
Will both teams score in Peterborough United vs Stevenage?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Peterborough United vs Stevenage?
Expected goals are 1.37 for Peterborough United and 0.99 for Stevenage — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Peterborough United vs Stevenage?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Peterborough United or draw is 73%.