Philadelphia Union vs Cincinnati Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Philadelphia Union vs Cincinnati
Model pick: Philadelphia Union (56%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.07 – 1.07
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 63%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Philadelphia Union | Cincinnati |
|---|
| League position | #15 (7 pts) | #7 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 2.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 12% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 1.8 |
*Philadelphia Union shown at home, Cincinnati shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Philadelphia Union — last 5
LWDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Cincinnati — last 5
LDWDL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Philadelphia Union (home) | Cincinnati (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-3-3 in 6 (0.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-4-3 in 8 (2.0 / 2.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 60% |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.07 vs 1.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Philadelphia Union or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Cincinnati or draw (X2) | 40% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Philadelphia Union clean sheet | 34% |
| Cincinnati clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Philadelphia Union is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Philadelphia Union are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Philadelphia Union vs Cincinnati — FAQ
Who will win Philadelphia Union vs Cincinnati?
Our statistical model makes Philadelphia Union the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Philadelphia Union 56%, draw 22%, Cincinnati 22%.
Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union vs Cincinnati?
The model gives a 63% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Philadelphia Union vs Cincinnati?
Expected goals are 2.07 for Philadelphia Union and 1.07 for Cincinnati — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Philadelphia Union vs Cincinnati?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Philadelphia Union or draw is 81%.