Phoenix Rising vs Colorado Springs Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Aug 20, 2026 · kickoff 02:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
Phoenix Rising vs Colorado Springs
Model pick: Colorado Springs (53%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.72 – 1.53
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Phoenix Rising | Colorado Springs |
|---|
| League position | #10 (22 pts) | #9 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 1.3 | 1.1 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 22% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.0 |
*Phoenix Rising shown at home, Colorado Springs shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Phoenix Rising — last 5
LWDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Colorado Springs — last 5
WWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Phoenix Rising (home) | Colorado Springs (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-4-2 in 9 (1.7 / 1.3 goals per game) | 2-2-5 in 9 (1.1 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 46%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.72 vs 1.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (16%) |
| Double chance — Phoenix Rising or draw (1X) | 43% |
| Double chance — Colorado Springs or draw (X2) | 82% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Phoenix Rising clean sheet | 22% |
| Colorado Springs clean sheet | 49% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Colorado Springs is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Despite playing away, Colorado Springs edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Phoenix Rising vs Colorado Springs — FAQ
Who will win Phoenix Rising vs Colorado Springs?
Our statistical model makes Colorado Springs the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Phoenix Rising 20%, draw 27%, Colorado Springs 53%.
Will both teams score in Phoenix Rising vs Colorado Springs?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Phoenix Rising vs Colorado Springs?
Expected goals are 0.72 for Phoenix Rising and 1.53 for Colorado Springs — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Phoenix Rising vs Colorado Springs?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (16%). Double chance for Phoenix Rising or draw is 43%.