Phoenix Rising vs Indy Eleven Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 02:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
Phoenix Rising vs Indy Eleven
Model pick: Phoenix Rising (53%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.85 – 0.7
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Phoenix Rising | Indy Eleven |
|---|
| League position | #10 (26 pts) | #7 (28 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 40% | 11% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*Phoenix Rising shown at home, Indy Eleven shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Phoenix Rising — last 5
DDLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Indy Eleven — last 5
LLDWW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 25% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Phoenix Rising (home) | Indy Eleven (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-4-2 in 10 (1.8 / 1.3 goals per game) | 1-2-6 in 9 (0.7 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 25% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 47%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.85 vs 0.7):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Phoenix Rising or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Indy Eleven or draw (X2) | 35% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Phoenix Rising clean sheet | 50% |
| Indy Eleven clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Phoenix Rising is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Phoenix Rising are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Phoenix Rising vs Indy Eleven — FAQ
Who will win Phoenix Rising vs Indy Eleven?
Our statistical model makes Phoenix Rising the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Phoenix Rising 53%, draw 25%, Indy Eleven 22%.
Will both teams score in Phoenix Rising vs Indy Eleven?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Phoenix Rising vs Indy Eleven?
Expected goals are 1.85 for Phoenix Rising and 0.7 for Indy Eleven — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Phoenix Rising vs Indy Eleven?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Phoenix Rising or draw is 87%.