Phonix Lubeck B vs Flensburg Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Phonix Lubeck B vs Flensburg
Model pick: Flensburg (79%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.11 – 3.82
Total goals: 4.9
Over 2.5: 75%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Phonix Lubeck B | Flensburg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 2.4 | 2.8 / 1.0 |
*Phonix Lubeck B shown at home, Flensburg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Phonix Lubeck B — last 5
LWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Flensburg — last 5
WWLWD
On the road: clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Phonix Lubeck B (home) | Flensburg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.61
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 68%
BTTS: 63%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.11 vs 3.82):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-3 (8%) |
| Double chance — Phonix Lubeck B or draw (1X) | 16% |
| Double chance — Flensburg or draw (X2) | 94% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 91% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 96% / 4% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Phonix Lubeck B clean sheet | 2% |
| Flensburg clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Flensburg is the model's most likely outcome at
79%. Despite playing away, Flensburg edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.9, this shapes as an open game (75% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Phonix Lubeck B vs Flensburg — FAQ
Who will win Phonix Lubeck B vs Flensburg?
Our statistical model makes Flensburg the most likely result at 79%. Full probabilities: Phonix Lubeck B 9%, draw 12%, Flensburg 79%.
Will both teams score in Phonix Lubeck B vs Flensburg?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Phonix Lubeck B vs Flensburg?
Expected goals are 1.11 for Phonix Lubeck B and 3.82 for Flensburg — about 4.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Phonix Lubeck B vs Flensburg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-3 (8%). Double chance for Phonix Lubeck B or draw is 16%.