Phonix Lubeck vs Lübeck Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Phonix Lubeck vs Lübeck
Model pick: Phonix Lubeck (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.9 – 0.16
Total goals: 1.1
Over 2.5: 22%
Both teams score: 27%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Phonix Lubeck | Lübeck |
|---|
| League position | #8 (3 pts) | #13 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 0.0 | 0.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 0.6 |
*Phonix Lubeck shown at home, Lübeck shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Phonix Lubeck — last 5
LLDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Lübeck — last 5
WWDDL
On the road: clean sheet 12% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Phonix Lubeck (home) | Lübeck (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 52% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 35%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 62%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.9 vs 0.16):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (35%) |
| Double chance — Phonix Lubeck or draw (1X) | 94% |
| Double chance — Lübeck or draw (X2) | 46% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 60% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 2% / 98% |
| Phonix Lubeck clean sheet | 85% |
| Lübeck clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Phonix Lubeck is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Phonix Lubeck are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (78% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Phonix Lubeck vs Lübeck — FAQ
Who will win Phonix Lubeck vs Lübeck?
Our statistical model makes Phonix Lubeck the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Phonix Lubeck 52%, draw 40%, Lübeck 9%.
Will both teams score in Phonix Lubeck vs Lübeck?
The model gives a 27% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Phonix Lubeck vs Lübeck?
Expected goals are 0.9 for Phonix Lubeck and 0.16 for Lübeck — about 1.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Phonix Lubeck vs Lübeck?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (35%). Double chance for Phonix Lubeck or draw is 94%.