Phonix Lubeck vs Werder Bremen II Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Phonix Lubeck vs Werder Bremen II
Model pick: Phonix Lubeck (49%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.21 – 0.56
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 36%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Phonix Lubeck | Werder Bremen II |
|---|
| League position | #7 (8 pts) | #13 (5 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 0.0 | 1.7 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*Phonix Lubeck shown at home, Werder Bremen II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Phonix Lubeck — last 5
WDWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Werder Bremen II — last 5
DLLWD
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 80% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Phonix Lubeck (home) | Werder Bremen II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (3.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 1-1-1 in 3 (1.7 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.25
Home wins: 34%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 64%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.21 vs 0.56):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (21%) |
| Double chance — Phonix Lubeck or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Werder Bremen II or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 53% / 47% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 10% / 90% |
| Phonix Lubeck clean sheet | 57% |
| Werder Bremen II clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Phonix Lubeck is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Phonix Lubeck are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (64% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Phonix Lubeck vs Werder Bremen II — FAQ
Who will win Phonix Lubeck vs Werder Bremen II?
Our statistical model makes Phonix Lubeck the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Phonix Lubeck 49%, draw 32%, Werder Bremen II 19%.
Will both teams score in Phonix Lubeck vs Werder Bremen II?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Phonix Lubeck vs Werder Bremen II?
Expected goals are 1.21 for Phonix Lubeck and 0.56 for Werder Bremen II — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Phonix Lubeck vs Werder Bremen II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (21%). Double chance for Phonix Lubeck or draw is 83%.