Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa
Model pick: Legia Warszawa (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.13 – 1.18
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Piast Gliwice | Legia Warszawa |
|---|
| League position | #16 (3 pts) | #28 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.5 / 3.5 | 1.3 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.8 | 2.2 / 0.6 |
*Piast Gliwice shown at home, Legia Warszawa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Piast Gliwice — last 5
LLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Legia Warszawa — last 5
WWDDW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Piast Gliwice (home) | Legia Warszawa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (3.5 / 3.5 goals per game) | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.3 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 48% |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.13 vs 1.18):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Piast Gliwice or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Legia Warszawa or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Piast Gliwice clean sheet | 31% |
| Legia Warszawa clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Legia Warszawa is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Legia Warszawa edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa — FAQ
Who will win Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model makes Legia Warszawa the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Piast Gliwice 30%, draw 28%, Legia Warszawa 41%.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
Expected goals are 1.13 for Piast Gliwice and 1.18 for Legia Warszawa — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Piast Gliwice or draw is 63%.