Piratas vs Cancún Prediction & Preview
Primera A (Mexico) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 01:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA A (MEXICO)
Piratas vs Cancún
Model pick: Piratas (55%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.17 – 0.41
Total goals: 1.6
Over 2.5: 33%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Piratas | Cancún |
|---|
| League position | #5 (7 pts) | #13 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.0 | 1.0 / 4.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
*Piratas shown at home, Cancún shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Piratas — last 5
DWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 100% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Cancún — last 5
WLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Piratas (home) | Cancún (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 4.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 100% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 42% |
Primera A (Mexico) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.54
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera A (Mexico) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.17 vs 0.41):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (24%) |
| Double chance — Piratas or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Cancún or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 47% / 53% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 8% / 92% |
| Piratas clean sheet | 66% |
| Cancún clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Piratas is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Piratas are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (67% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Piratas vs Cancún — FAQ
Who will win Piratas vs Cancún?
Our statistical model makes Piratas the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: Piratas 55%, draw 28%, Cancún 17%.
Will both teams score in Piratas vs Cancún?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Piratas vs Cancún?
Expected goals are 1.17 for Piratas and 0.41 for Cancún — about 1.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Piratas vs Cancún?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (24%). Double chance for Piratas or draw is 87%.