Pisa vs Calcio Padova Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Italy) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (ITALY)
Pisa vs Calcio Padova
Model pick: Pisa (54%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.71 – 0.83
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pisa | Calcio Padova |
|---|
| League position | #20 (18 pts) | #9 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 2.2 |
*Pisa shown at home, Calcio Padova shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pisa — last 5
LWDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Calcio Padova — last 5
LLWDL
On the road: clean sheet 35% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pisa (home) | Calcio Padova (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 35% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 39% |
Serie B (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.45
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 32%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Serie B (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.71 vs 0.83):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Pisa or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Calcio Padova or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Pisa clean sheet | 44% |
| Calcio Padova clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pisa is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Pisa are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pisa vs Calcio Padova — FAQ
Who will win Pisa vs Calcio Padova?
Our statistical model makes Pisa the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Pisa 54%, draw 27%, Calcio Padova 19%.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Calcio Padova?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Pisa vs Calcio Padova?
Expected goals are 1.71 for Pisa and 0.83 for Calcio Padova — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pisa vs Calcio Padova?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Pisa or draw is 82%.