Pitea vs Karlbergs Prediction & Preview
Division 1 (Sweden) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION 1 (SWEDEN)
Pitea vs Karlbergs
Model pick: Karlbergs (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.56 – 0.86
Total goals: 1.4
Over 2.5: 30%
Both teams score: 39%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pitea | Karlbergs |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.8 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*Pitea shown at home, Karlbergs shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pitea — last 5
DDLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 33% of home games go over 2.5.
Karlbergs — last 5
LWWLD
On the road: clean sheet 40% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pitea (home) | Karlbergs (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 60% |
Division 1 (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.11
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Division 1 (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.56 vs 0.86):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (24%) |
| Double chance — Pitea or draw (1X) | 60% |
| Double chance — Karlbergs or draw (X2) | 78% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 63% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 6% / 94% |
| Pitea clean sheet | 42% |
| Karlbergs clean sheet | 57% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Karlbergs is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Karlbergs edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (70% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pitea vs Karlbergs — FAQ
Who will win Pitea vs Karlbergs?
Our statistical model makes Karlbergs the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Pitea 24%, draw 37%, Karlbergs 39%.
Will both teams score in Pitea vs Karlbergs?
The model gives a 39% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Pitea vs Karlbergs?
Expected goals are 0.56 for Pitea and 0.86 for Karlbergs — about 1.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pitea vs Karlbergs?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (24%). Double chance for Pitea or draw is 60%.