Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 21:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay
Model pick: Tampa Bay (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.24 – 1.46
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Pittsburgh | Tampa Bay |
|---|
| League position | #4 (33 pts) | #1 (44 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 0.9 | 1.5 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 55% | 64% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.4 | 2.0 / 1.2 |
*Pittsburgh shown at home, Tampa Bay shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Pittsburgh — last 5
LWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 29% of home games go over 2.5.
Tampa Bay — last 5
WWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Pittsburgh (home) | Tampa Bay (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-1-4 in 11 (1.3 / 0.9 goals per game) | 7-3-1 in 11 (1.5 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 50% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 47%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.24 vs 1.46):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Pittsburgh or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Tampa Bay or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Pittsburgh clean sheet | 23% |
| Tampa Bay clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Tampa Bay is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Tampa Bay edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay — FAQ
Who will win Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay?
Our statistical model makes Tampa Bay the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Pittsburgh 32%, draw 27%, Tampa Bay 41%.
Will both teams score in Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay?
Expected goals are 1.24 for Pittsburgh and 1.46 for Tampa Bay — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Pittsburgh or draw is 58%.